Author: Ian Au

Big Cities, Small Towns: We Are In This Together

Big Cities, Small Towns: We Are In This Together

Ian Au

In the past few weeks, I’ve been tracking COVID-19 prevalence among U.S. largest cities. Now I want to turn my analysis to a smaller scale at the county level, to see the “hot spots” beyond metropolitan areas like New York, Boston, Detroit, and Chicago. Luckily both Gray Television and The New York Times have already complied and analyzed county-by-county COVID-19 data and have kindly made them open source.

Below shows the highest rate of COVID-19 among U.S. counties with more than 5,000 in population. I have changed the denominator from per 100,000 to per cent. In these worst-hit counties, COVID-19 infection rate (that we managed to test) has risen so high that we can measure in percentages—not per 1,000, not per 100,000. Besides, some of these smaller counties have population way less than 100,000.

COVID-19 Rate Highest In These Counties (Across The Country)

Updated: May 3, 2020 @ 12 a.m. EST

This table above surprises me because a lot of small, rural counties have COVID-19 rate that is higher or on par with big cities. Key takeaway: Don’t think for a second that COVID-19 is just a big-city problem. Outbreaks have and will explode in sparsely populated small towns just the same. And when it does, it can overwhelm the town’s medical and social-service infrastructure.

For the next level of analysis, I separate big counties (more than 50,000 people) from small counties (fewer than 50,000 people). See below.

COVID-19 Rate – Big County (More Than 50,000 People)

Updated: May 3, 2020 @ 12 a.m. EST

New York City And Surrounding Counties

The City of New York is actually not the highest-concentration counties in the NY Metro Area with COVID-19 infections. The highest are two counties just north of the city: Rockland and Westchester. Within the city limit, the Bronx and Staten Island have the highest COVID-19 rate among the 5 boroughs/counties that comprise New York City.

Prisons Are Hotbeds Of Infection

Marion and Pickaway Counties in Ohio – Most of the COVID-19 cases are from outbreaks in local prisons. Ohio’s governor has rolled out mass testing in the state’s prison system and reported a staggering 70% of inmates being positive for COVID-19. States with larger prison populations than Ohio have not done mass testing; thus, it’s likely that they have vastly underestimated COVID-19 prevalence among prison inmates and staff. 

COVID-19 Rate – Small County (Fewer Than 50,000 People)

Updated: May 3, 2020 @ 12 a.m. EST

Prisons, Again…

Tennessee and Arkansas are discovering rampant COVID-19 infection inside their prisons as a result of widespread testing for inmates and staff. The results are frightening and shooting up the infection rate for a number of small, rural counties in which the prisons are located, like Trousdale and Bledsoe Counties in Tennessee and Lincoln County in Arkansas.

Meatpackers Have A COVID Problem

Meatpacking plants have caused huge spikes in COVID-19 infection rate in a number of small counties in the Midwest—leading to infection rate so high it rivals New York and New Jersey.  Dakota County, Nebraska; Cass County, Indiana; Louisa County, Iowa suffer outbreaks in their Tyson Foods plants. Nobles County, Minnesota has an outbreak in a JBS plant. Southwest Kansas (which includes Ford and Seward Counties) is a beef-processing hub with large slaughterhouses run by National Beef and Cargill. JBS (Brazilian-owned), Tyson Foods, and Cargill are respectively the #1, #2 and #3 largest meatpackers in the world.    

First Reported Outbreak in Rural America

Randolph County in southwest Georgia is part of the cluster of rural counties surrounding Albany that are heavily impacted by COVID-19 since the beginning of the epidemic. The outbreak reportedly stemmed from two funerals in late February and early March.

It’s Time For Solidarity

COVID-19 is NOT just a big-city problem; it’s not just an urban problem; it’s certainly not just a “Blue State” problem. It is all of America’s problem. As this analysis shows, COVID-19 is ravishing small towns in rural areas in “Red States” like Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia.

Big cities, small towns, we are all in this together. It this is not time for solidarity; I don’t know when is. Communities large and small suffer and cope in different ways. In our different ways, I hope we choose the right path for our community to survive this epidemic and recover stronger.

Data Source:

Update: Mapping COVID-19 Prevalence In U.S. Cities

Update: Mapping COVID-19 Prevalence In U.S. Cities

Ian Au

A big shout-out to the National Investigative Team at Gray Television, who is also tracking positive COVID-19 tests per 100,000 residents on a local level—county by county all across the U.S.A.—complete with a beautiful interactive map. The team makes it so much easier for me to compile data and continue to track COVID-19 prevalence among U.S. largest cities (metropolitan area). See below.

Updated: May 3, 2020 @ 12 a.m. EST

Data Source:

In Just A Week…Mapping COVID-19 Prevalence In U.S. Cities

In Just A Week…Mapping COVID-19 Prevalence In U.S. Cities

Ian Au

I am continuing the project to map COVID-19 prevalence among U.S. largest cities, i.e., per-capita confirmed cases for 100,000 people.  It’s only been six days since I started tracking these numbers but they have already doubled for most cities (metropolitan areas). The war against COVID-19 continues…

Updated: Apr. 1, 2020 @ 9 p.m. EST

This chart below is another way to look at COVID-19 prevalence. The U.S. national average is one confirmed case for every 1,524 people. Metropolitan areas of New York, New Orleans, Detroit, Boston, Chicago, Seattle, and Philadelphia are all worse than the national average.   

Updated: Apr. 1, 2020 @ 9 p.m. EST

I know from experts that the number of confirmed cases most likely under-represent the true picture of COVID-19 infection in America. Given the shortage, inaccessibility, and inconsistency in testing, the vast majority of the country is under-tested to a varying degree and only the most symptomatic of people are tested and counted. Still, confirmed cases and deaths are the only universally available and reliable metrics we have to measure the prevalence of coronavirus.

I use a city metro area definition instead of strictly the city limit. The common standard of defining metro areas is the U.S. Census Metropolitan Statistical Area. For example, the Los Angeles Metro Area, under this standard, comprises Los Angeles County and Orange County, with a total population of 13 million—much larger than the City of Los Angeles alone in terms of geography and population.  

Data Source:

Mapping COVID-19 Prevalence In U.S. Cities

Mapping COVID-19 Prevalence In U.S. Cities

Ian Au

Confirmed Cases Per 100,000 People in Largest U.S. Cities

Updated: May 3, 2020 @ 12 a.m. EST

Like a lot of people, I have been scrutinizing COVID-19 statistics obsessively. Among U.S. states, we know that New York, New Jersey, and California have the most confirmed cases. But the sheer numbers of cases tell only part of the coronavirus story because states are vastly different in population: California (40 million) is about twice as big as NY State (19 million), which is about twice as big as New Jersey (9 million).

Numbers of cases alone don’t tell us how widespread COVID-19 is in a population: What’s the percentage of people that are infected? For that, a metric that’s useful is prevalence—the proportion (or percentage) of people in a given geographic area that are COVID-19 positive.

Now, I know from experts that the number of confirmed cases most likely under-represent the true picture of COVID-19 infection in America. Given the shortage, inaccessibility, and inconsistency in testing, the vast majority of the country is under-tested to a varying degree and only the most symptomatic of people are tested and counted. Still, confirmed cases and deaths are the only universally available and reliable metrics we have to measure the prevalence of coronavirus.

As a long-time resident of New York City now under stay-at-home order, I am particular motivated to understand the prevalence of COVID-19 in New York; and how bad it is compared to other U.S. cities. So I set out to map and track COVID-19 prevalence (proportion of people that are tested positive) among the largest and most affected cities in America.

I use a city metro area definition instead of strictly the city limit. The common standard of defining metro areas is the U.S. Census Metropolitan Statistical Area. Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases come from the now-famous Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Tracker. COVID-19 prevalence is denominated as case per 100,000 people. So for example, as of Mar. 29, U.S.A. has 43 confirmed cases per 100,000 people; Italy has 162 per 100,000.

After crunching the numbers for the largest and most-affected U.S. cities. New York Metro Area is, not surprising, at the unfortunate top of the most-prevalent list. (NY Metro includes NYC’s northern suburbs, all of Long Island, and Northern New Jersey.) What’s worrying is the next most-prevalent city: Metro New Orleans, with a comparatively small population of 1.3 million and fewer resources. The other most-affected cities are Seattle, Detroit, Boston, Chicago Metro Areas.

I am not an epidemiologist or a demographer. Just an out-of-work marketing director who is trained in market research. My motivation is my immense fascination and grave concern with COVID-19 data and statistics and too much time on my hand while I’m grounded at home. I intend to update, track, and publish this “Mapping COVID-19 “Prevalence” in U.S. Cities” analysis on a daily (or near daily) basis because I am anxious to see how the numbers move. If you have advice on how to improve this, I’d love to hear it.

Data Source: